Midterm Shifts: Young and Low-Income Voters Abandon GOP
AP data shows voters under 30, Hispanics, and those with incomes under $50,000 returned to the Democratic column in 2026 House races.
By Vikram Harrison ·
The political alignment of working families and younger citizens changed sharply in the 2026 midterms, according to the AP Voter Poll. More than 100,000 voters across all 50 states reported their choices in a survey that tracks demographic shifts between the 2024 presidential election and this year's House races. The data indicates that several groups that supported President Donald Trump two years ago have moved back toward Democratic candidates.
Voters under 30 represented the most dramatic reversal. In 2024, this group was roughly split between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. This year, approximately seven in ten young voters chose the Democratic candidate for their local U.S. House seat, while only about three in ten voted for the Republican. Although voters under 30 made up only about one-tenth of the national electorate, their sentiment was distinct. About half of these young voters described themselves as angry about the country's direction, a higher rate than voters over 65.
Hispanic voters also shifted away from the Republican Party. In 2024, roughly four in ten Hispanic voters supported Trump. In the 2026 House races, only about one-third backed the Republican candidate, while six in ten voted for Democrats. This change was visible in the Texas Senate race, where Democrat James Talarico won roughly six in ten Hispanic voters against Republican Ken Paxton. In Florida, Republican Ashley Moody won reelection but captured less than half of the Hispanic vote, a drop from Trump's earlier dominance with the group.
Black men, who provided Trump with notable gains in 2024, largely returned to the Democratic fold. Only about one in ten Black men voted for the Republican House candidate this year, down from roughly one-quarter for Trump in 2024. In Georgia, about nine in ten Black men voted for Keisha Lance Bottoms, the state's first Black female governor. In Florida, Republican Byron Donalds won about one-quarter of Black men, but only about one in ten Black women supported him over Democrat David Jolly.
Moderate voters also leaned Democratic, driven by dissatisfaction with congressional oversight and economic hardship. About two-thirds of moderates supported Democratic House candidates, up from six in ten for Harris. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton won about seven in ten moderate voters, while in Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek secured about two-thirds. Roy Cooper in North Carolina won about three-quarters of moderates, exceeding the support Harris received in the state.
Economic concerns pushed voters with household incomes under $50,000 toward the Democratic Party. In 2024, this group was evenly split between the presidential candidates. This year, more than half voted for the Democratic House candidate. About three in ten U.S. voters nationally fall into this income bracket. These voters reported higher levels of concern about food, gas, and utility costs than wealthier peers. About six in ten said the cost of living was a critical factor in their vote, compared to half of those earning $50,000 or more.
