Vance's Midterm Campaign Shows 2028 Aspirations

Vice President JD Vance's recent campaign speech in Weatherford, Texas, showed his willingness to criticize Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, calling out his need to grapple with his masculinity. This speech came on the same day that President Trump held a rally in Rock Hill, South Carolina, as part of his pre-midterm push. Although Vance's delivery was more polished and less borscht-belt comedian than the president's, his speech contained plenty of MAGA DNA, from mocking a candidate's masculinity to promising a return of American greatness. This gives a sense of what a Vance presidential campaign might look like once 2028 campaigns begin in earnest next year.

Vance paints a rosy picture of the America of his youth, in his speeches, invoking the 'sense of pride and unity and fellowship' Americans had after September 11, 2001. He added to that message in multiple speeches remembering his childhood football teams being sponsored by local small businesses. In Howell, Michigan, he told the crowd that most of the teams he played for had sponsors that no longer existed, saying that the politicians in Washington were the ones who caused their disappearance, and it was us that paid the consequences.

Culture warrior. It's a story about a Norman Rockwell vision of America corrupted by Washington elites. The story Vance tells is that his brand of populist politics can bring that back. But it's not just about economics; Vance leans hard into the culture wars fought during the Trump years.

In his stories about peewee football, Vance talks about racial harmony well before the advent of Black Lives Matter: 'the children of working-class Black families and the children of working-class white families would play football together, would cheer with one another, would never worry about the color of their skin or who had more privilege,' he told the crowd in North Carolina.

Interspersed with his campaign speeches this year have been appearances as the head of President Trump's anti-fraud task force, which has a goal of rooting out malfeasance in social safety net programs. The task force provides Vance with both resume material and an opportunity to talk about his personal story.

The challenge for Vance right now is in promoting GOP candidates while the Republican president he serves is unpopular. That challenge is particularly acute where the president's policies have directly caused economic woes.

The challenge for any would-be 2028 Republican candidate is figuring out how to follow Trump's singular, decade-plus-long performance, and what, if anything, can replace that in the hearts of GOP voters.