Democrats Lead Senate Bids in Texas and Michigan as Maine and Kansas Tighten
A CNN poll shows Democrats need to flip four Senate seats to reach a 51-vote majority without relying on a vice presidential tiebreaker.
By Layla Richardson ·
Democrats hold leads in Senate races in Texas and Michigan while contests in Maine and Kansas remain within the margin of error, according to a CNN poll released ahead of Election Day. Democrats are projected to control the House, but they must flip four Republican-held Senate seats to secure a 51-seat majority.
In Texas, State Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 49% to 43%, among likely voters. Talarico draws 64% support from likely voters of color, including 22% of the group that backed Donald Trump in 2024. Among Republicans polled, 24% hold an unfavorable view of Paxton; 2% of Democrats view Talarico unfavorably.
Michigan shows Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed at 49% and former Rep. Mike Rogers at 42%. El-Sayed has consolidated party support after a primary against Rep. Haley Stevens, with 95% of likely Democratic voters backing him, up from 90% in a September survey. Rogers' favorability fell from 58% in September to 50% in October, and 57% of his supporters say they are voting against El-Sayed rather than for Rogers.
Maine remains close between incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and former state Senate president Troy Jackson, who replaced Graham Platner as the Democratic nominee. Jackson polls at 49% and Collins at 45%. At least 12.5% of respondents say they could still change their minds. Collins receives the lowest party-association rating among Republican Senate candidates nationwide, with 46% saying she would favor constituents over the Republican Party.
In Kansas, Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton polls at 49% against incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall's 45%. Hamilton, a Christian pastor, draws about 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters. While 57% of Kansas voters view the Democratic Party unfavorably, only 38% hold an unfavorable view of Hamilton. Among his supporters, 59% say their vote is driven by opposition to Marshall.
Collins' record includes one of seven Republican votes for Trump's second impeachment in 2021 and a vote against Pete Hegseth's confirmation as Secretary of Defense in 2025. Three-quarters of respondents in both parties said their Maine choice centered on Collins rather than Jackson.
CNN conducted the polling by telephone from Oct. 20 to Oct. 27, randomly sampling registered voters. The survey included 923 likely voters in Texas, 838 in Kansas, 783 in Maine and 768 in Michigan. Margins of sampling error were plus or minus 4.2% in Texas, 4.5% in Kansas and Maine, and 4.7% in Michigan.
